2023 Predictions
As we wind up year 2022, it is helpful to take a look at past events having in mind what might be coming in 2023.
That said, it is insightful to contemplate forecasts published by Saxobank in their “10 Outrageous Predictions for 2023.”
The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets.
"This year's Outrageous Predictions argue that any belief in a return to the disinflationary pre-pandemic dynamic is impossible because we have entered into a global war economy, with every major power across the world now scrambling to shore up their national security on all fronts; whether in an actual military sense, or due to profound supply-chain, energy and even financial insecurities that have been laid bare by the pandemic experience and Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo, said in a statement.
It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable.
According to Saxobank,
1. Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy
Summary: "It’s the largest research and development effort since the original Manhattan Project that developed the first atomic bomb." - Peter Garnry & Anders Nysteen
2. French President Macron resigns
Summary: "In a televised address, he criticises the opposition’s standpoint of absolute blockage and announces he is retiring from politics." - Christopher Dembik.
3. Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate
Summary: "2023 is the year that the market finally discovers that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future." - Ole S. Hansen.
4. EU Army forces EU down path to full union
Summary: "In 2023 it becomes clearer than ever that Europe needs to get the union’s defensive posture in order." - John Hardy & Christopher Dembik
5. A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030
Summary: "It plans to ban all domestically produced live animal-sourced meat entirely by 2030." - Charu Chanana.
6. UK holds UnBrexit referendum
Summary: "Supply side tax cuts and demand-boosting subsidies for energy are a toxic cocktail for a country’s bond and currency markets." - Jessica Amir.
7. Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation
Summary: "In a war economy, the government hand will expand mercilessly as long as price pressures threaten stability." - Steen Jakobsen.
8. OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset
Summary: Recognising the ongoing weaponisation of the USD by the US government, non-US allied countries move to leave the USD and the IMF to create an international clearing union (ICU) and a new reserve asset, the Bancor (currency code KEY), using Keynes’ original idea from the pre-Bretton Woods days to thumb its nose at the practices of the US in leveraging its power over the international monetary system.
9. USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system
Summary: "Japan’s real GDP drops by 8 percent." - John J. Hardy.
10. Tax haven ban kills private equity
Summary: "The OECD agrees in 2023 to move to a more aggressive stance on tax havens, launching a full ban on the largest tax havens in the world." - Peter Garnry.
What I think regarding the above predictions,
1. An obvious scam. The entire we want to save the ‘environment’ is another money grabbing operation.
2. This one tells me the other predictions are BS. Macron the tyrant could never cede power. In your dreams.
3. I see the case for this one but historically, Gold has never "rocketed" to anywhere; it remains relatively stable. I would like to be wrong.
4. The only thing the EU army will do is force the EU into WW3 by starting a nuclear war with Russia.
5. 'A country', 'What country?' Do they mean Klaus Schwab and WEF?
6. No. Not like Brexit did anything significant.
7. Price controls have never capped inflation, so yet more BS.
8. Not really a prediction. Saudi already recognizes the Yuan for trading oil. What they mean is 'they drop the USD as reserve currency'. Leaving the IMF? Don't know about that.
9. Alternative prediction: Japan gets annexed by China after WW3 flares off.
10. Tax haven ban on paper, yes. In practicality of enforcement? Unlikely.
My own 2023 likely predictions:
European and south American governments might fall.
The tension among states and federal government in the US will heat up.
People will start gardening more and grow their own food.
Protests over the vaccine and immigration will be dramatic.
Rise in vigilantism and private security.
Of course there are more I think of (since am having fun at this),
SBF walks.
Wall Street goes full into cryptocurrencies.
Joe Biden resigns or is impeached.
Zelensky dies.
Russia takes territory it wanted in the first place.
The jab injuries will be very hard to contain and it will have to be addressed.
US Government continues spending like a drunken sailor.
Will be fascinating to see which prediction actually comes true.
Excited for 2023?
See you tomorrow!
- Ope